But what about the technologies we rely on that have already reached their limits? What about ones that society has now found to be a bad move, like unsafe, fuel-inefficient vehicles? or tanning lotion? Nuclear technology? What will replace them, and how is it occurring today?
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| The first thing I hope goes- desktops |
Computer memory:
As i linked earlier in the blog, the limits of silicon memory technology is fast approaching it's end. This is why we've resorted to things like the octuple super processor (don't know how many they're up to, but octuple sounds sexy). Basically they've decided that because one chip has hit its limits, they need more to alter functions super fast. Basically the way your operating system functions is that it doesn't technically handle more than one thing at a time- but it switches through these functions super mega fast, so if you can flip processors around for more speed and control- well that is one way to get around the limitations of materials. I believe this will be a thing of the past within 15 years tops.
Why? Because bioengineering is, in my eyes at least, going to take over. If you think about it, the basis for our definition of organic life, is that it is carbon based. So, now graphite processors are in the works and they're nothing but carbon, and surprise, they have resorted in using biological factories to create the finite layers. This is the beginnings of bioengineering. Lets take it one step further shall we?
Suppose now we have mastered the simple carbon processor- that means learning how to bend and compile the carbon is the next step. What do you can complex chains of carbon based materials with infrastructures created to bend and coil to maintain speed and extend ability within a given volume? Why, in animals we call them proteins! More specifically, we call it a brain. So is it really so far out of reach to have a rudimentary artificial brain created, handling our video games and word documents that would have well beyond a yotabyte? Which brings me to
Turing Test Approved
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| Scariest sci fi bad guy. |
I know it is a complete hope of a sci-fi nerd to think such a thing. But to be blunt, it is becoming the realm of possibility- not just early 20th century hooey.
Cloning
It is difficult for me to think which will win- cyborg tech, or cloning. But given how far we've advanced in our stem cell tech, I'd have to say regenerating limbs and extending the abilities of our biological clocks will win out in the end. To put this in perspective- we have only now found an experimental process of integrating a computer chip into a blind person's occipital lobe and wiring it to their eyes so they can see in what basically amounts to technicolor. On the other foot, we're cloning extinct animals.
And tell me, what takes more money- a long process of manufacturing chips and wires, or starting a bath of ooze which eventually takes its own shape? Right now the wires is cheaper, but I'd say that won't take long given how fast the bio industry is slashing prices and trying to accomidate with the zeitgeist of the world's healthcare crisis.
End of the driver regulated freeway
Was it the Eigthday or some other scifi movie that had cars that autodrove along the highway? Doesn't matter, it's coming closer and closer to reality. What would this mean? Cheaper insurence premiums for starters- imagine a world where public roads were 99% efficient- no rush hour, significantly less accidents and fatalities, less emmisions, more fuel efficiency, it would be great! It is of course difficult to trust yourself to a new system like an autopilot- but you would get used to it. Kind of like how we have got used to microwaves reheating our food instead of ovens or fire; or how our digital clocks wake us up; or our water heaters don't blow up on us; or how we blindly follow our GPS to wherever we're going instead of using paper maps and compasses. Despite our reservations, computers are more efficient and less erronous than humans- if something is wrong, it is usually because of human input error on one end or the other.
But if public roads were just autodestinations, you could just assume if there is an accident, an entire network of vehicles and smart roads could record WHY that accident occurred- computer glitch or human error. One way would be costly for you, the other, would keep insurance companies poor. It would take time to impliment of course, but so did the freeway system and cars in general.
The end of Capitalism
Yes, even economies are just a societal technology constructed out of the simple natural law of economics. I say the end of Capitalism, meaning as we understand it. Free markets are a dumb idea- it replaces autocratic entities that hold all the money to private company barons who hold all the money. Same thing, different names. So we create a balance of Socialism and Capitalism. Eventually that Socialism will take more and more shape to fit each country's unique build- this is not the same Socialist ideas of certain Russians of the past. This is it in a more balanced, less forced, manner which doesn't give governments OR people complete free reign.
Why then, do I believe this is coming up so soon (meaning within a century)? Because with the advent of the world wide web we have digitized our monetary system- giving completely to the fact that money is IMGINARY. There is no underlying reason money is as valuable as it is, except that people believe it. So now we no longer have to interact with other humans to allow money flow, and since nobody has any idea what the limits of money are, we can just pretend there is more and more and nobody will know. Money will eventually lose much of its importance to other economic derivitives- such as information or, as always, labor. So then if we, as communities communicate less and less with each other, we lose that collective grasp of how our city/town/county/state/country is doing economically. Who then keeps track, or cares? Why, companies! So either companies will take over and nations will dissapear- in which case free market is gone, because technically speaking the market is now the government; or the government will learn how to watchdog and police giant companies. Hell, I don't actually think Marx was too far from the mark with his thoughts of the evolution of societies- not to say his interpretation at specific points and how they were carried out weren't just crazy...
Eugenics (unfortunately)
Moving along the cloning lines is a darker current- that our understanding of specific genetics will allow for unspeakable horrors. Our lives are getting longer, increasing in quality, and there will be more humans than ever next year- and that trend will never stop. This means resources will eventually become scarcer and more valuable. This means borders will be encroached, and war will be the inevitable outcome. We understand the issues with nuclear tech- fallout is a bitch for the whole world. When it comes to diseases they can just as easily be spread back to its creator's origins- very difficult to contain. But what about diseases that could be launched and activated by very specific- and rare- codons.
What this means, is that anybody who carries a vestigial gene code from, lets say Ghengis Kahn, will be killed by Disease X. That means roughly 1/3 men in the world will be killed, 2/3 will be from European dissent. Getting where this could go? Leave all the women, kill all the men, find a race, exterminate it. Put modifiers in the air or water that will sterilize only certains of the population- eugenics at its scariest, and most efficient.
What I wish I could say we will see within a century:
Moon Colony
Mars Colony
Food replicators
Teleporters
unmanned warzones (drone controlled)
Lightspeed crafts
Why won't we see any of this? Because it wouldn't sell. Because it would be work. Because only people with imagination or ambition would work for these kind of things. Unlike a holodeck, which is what the average sedated TV watching human would love to have- myself included. But, I'd like to believe that with all this computer tech and bio tech we could successfully colonize other worlds and move beyond our scope of perception into the wild black beyond. We live in a sci-fi age, so why not go along with it? That's all I can say, for now, I am out of time.
